Re: H1N5 (and Bakker's virus extinction hypothesis) now H5N1

[Phil Bigelow <bigelowp@juno.com>]

On Wed, 17 May 2006 10:12:57 +1000 Dann Pigdon <dannj@alphalink.com.au>
writes:
> On Tue, 16 May 2006 19:57:09 +0200, Tommy Tyrberg wrote
 
> >  temperature is not the key factor. However there is very good 
> > evidence that bubonic plague in Europe almost always occurred in 
> the 
> > autumn, though nobody knows why.


> Decreasing air temperatures perhaps... 

In our early agricultural societies, our pals the rats lived and fed in
grain storage areas during the late summer-early fall.  With decreasing
temps. (mid-late fall), the theory goes, rats then move into artificially
warmed areas (houses, mangers), thereby placing themselves in closer
contact with human hosts.  The epidemiological effect is similar to our
modern flu outbreaks during the colder months, when people tend to spend
more time indoors in close contact with each other.

The drop off in Bubonic Plague epidemics in the late A.D. 1700s may have
been associated with warming global temperatures (the beginning of the
end of the "Little Ice Age"), OR it may have been associated with our
growing understanding of microscopic pathogens (see Edward Jenner, A.D.
1796) , and our prevention efforts (better waste disposal and better
garbage disposal).  Or it could have been a combination of the two
factors.


<pb>
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