Re: Frosted Popper-Tarts (was Re: Underlying basis...)

[Philidor11@aol.com]

In a message dated 7/20/99 8:22:39 AM Eastern Daylight Time, 
th81@umail.umd.edu writes:

<< Indeed: however, these future discoveries themselves represent tests of the
 original hypothesis.  They will often produce new hypotheses, but the same
 applies to experiments involving mixing two fluids in a beaker. >>

Just one final observation:
When Wegener introduced his hypothesis about plate tectonics he was not 
generally believed because no one knew the mechanism by which plates could 
drift (as I understand it).  The additional discoveries on the ocean floor 
were observations necessary to make the hypothesis acceptable.  In the same 
way, at least part of the search for materials formed by a bolide collision 
was essential to justifying the original hypothesis and not a test of the 
hypothesis.
The future discoveries constitute a test of the hypothesis only when the 
hypothesis has already been proven acceptable.  (This distinction assumes 
part of the definition of a hypothesis is sufficient supporting observations 
to make it credible.  Awhile ago I suggested that the swanlike appearance of 
plesiosaur necks and heads make it appear likely the animal spent a great 
deal of time floating at the surface and stabbing its head into the water.  
To me, this is not a scientific hypothesis, but a speculation.) 
  
Someone who rejected a hypothesis when most people found it acceptable could 
argue that new discoveries are still necessary additional proof and not a 
test of the hypothesis.  However, consensus implies that the evidence 
available at that moment  is sufficient for a reasonable (expert) person to 
conclude the hypothesis is tentatively proven.  In that limited sense, 
paleontology, other historical sciences, other sciences you mention, and even 
parts of physics may be considered arbitrary in the sense that the 
acceptability of a hypothesis relies on certain nameable persons at a point 
in time.
I can accept that, but I think it's worth noting.